Our tipster Jones Knows thinks Sheffield United will rack up the offsides calls in their fixture with Fulham. He says back this 6/1 shot.
How did we get on last weekend?
Yet more frustration.
Whilst the three bets advertised on this column all returned as losers two bets at 33/1 that made my shortlist to recommend won on my predictions column. Both Declan Rice to score first at 33/1 and Southampton/Wolves in the half-time, full-time market at 33/1 were under consideration to be “officially tipped” in this piece but were crossed off the shortlist late in the day. It does bring forward the theory that reading the outright prediction column and considering the betting angles I put forward there is a must for those looking to follow.
Here’s how the three bets got on last weekend:
2pts on Joao Cancelo to have a shot on target from outside the box for Man City vs Tottenham: Cancelo whistled a shot from range a few yards past the post to make this a fine margin loser. Of course, he then goes and hits the target from outside the area vs Everton in midweek with just two minutes on the clock. Right bet, wrong day.
1pt on Aaron Wan-Bissaka to have two or more shots at goal for Manchester United vs West Brom: I’m guessing United’s lacklustre showing burnt many fingers at West Brom. Usually very reliable in the shots markets, United managed only eight shots in the entire game as Sam Allardyce worked his magic. Our bet never truly looked like landing although Wan-Bissaka did have two opportunities to shoot in the box but ended up looking for a teammate. He’s very unreliable in terms of attacking output despite being given more licence to get forward.
1pt on Cesar Azpilicueta to receive a card in Chelsea vs Newcastle: Hands up. This was a shocker. Allan Saint-Maximin didn’t look overly interested and escaped being fouled for just the third time in a match since joining Newcastle. Azpilicueta remains a player to watch in the cards market but wasn’t tested in this one.
We’ve got three points staked out this week to try and get back moving in the right direction.
P+L = 0
1pt on Sheffield United to be caught offside five or more times vs Fulham (6/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
Listening to football managers speak is a key part of my job – but sometimes it’s a tenuous task. However, the odd nugget of gold to be used when it comes to spotting a betting angle. Scott Parker is a great talker and engages in depth with the media. After Fulham’s defeat at West Ham earlier this season, he delved quite deep into how he wants his team to actively catch opposition players offside by pressing high.
Sunday 21st February 2:00am
Now, certain teams like the Blades are always worth a look in the offside markets when facing Fulham. Only Liverpool have caught more players offside this season than Fulham (61) with Burnley falling foul of their offside trap six times in the 1-1 draw on Wednesday night.
This weekend’s opponents like to work the space in behind defences through their marauding wide players and aren’t afraid to go long straight into their front men, hence more likely opportunities to be caught offside. Only Manchester United, Burnley, Southampton and West Ham have been caught offside more this season than the Blades (48).
In the reverse fixture at Bramall Lane, Chris Wilder’s men were caught offside five times against Fulham as they gave the Fulham back five a good workout with their clever movement down the channels.
I’d expect similar numbers for this weekend’s meeting, especially as both teams will be going for maximum points and there should be plenty of opportunities for the Blades to break. Punters should be pointed towards the very generous 10/11 for three or more offsides but I’m happy to play the juicy 6/1 for five more.
1pt on Newcastle +2 goal handicap, Newcastle to have nine or more shots & Sheffield United to be caught offside three or more times (6/1 with Sky Bet – bet here!)
I am interested in including that three or more offside line in my staking plan for the weekend and have found a way to turn it into a 6/1 shot with the help of Newcastle, who play Manchester United on Sunday.
There seems to be a feeling that Newcastle are serious relegation contenders but a quick look at the table sees them six points clear of the drop. I’d be very surprised if they even get dragged into the scrap if they remain playing in this more attack-minded style we’ve seen of late. This isn’t the Newcastle of a few weeks ago that embarrassed themselves in a 1-0 defeat at Sheffield United. It’s a braver, more forward-thinking approach and one that will make them a tough opponent for United to get past.
Since switching to this diamond-like formation halfway through their defeat to Leeds with Miguel Almiron playing in the pocket, Newcastle are averaging just under two goals a game still and 12.5 shots a game. I thought they handled themselves quite well at Chelsea, registering 10 shots at goal – the most Thomas Tuchel has faced in the league since taking over at Stamford Bridge. Yes, there’s going to be a problem finishing these chances without Callum Wilson but playing this way will still get Newcastle into dangerous areas of the pitch with Allan Saint-Maximin an obvious threat.
For the purpose of this bet, I’m looking to back Newcastle with a two-goal head start at 10/11. So, for the bet to win Newcastle either need to win, draw or lose by one goal. This is a bet that would have won backing the opposing team in 14 of Manchester United’s last 16 matches. And I’m happy to throw in the nine or more shots line to complete the 6/1 shot.